David Sweat, head of epidemiology at the Shelby County Health Department, is poring over a short list of different COVID-19 models right now, reading them like a map for the road the disease will take from here.
There isn’t just one model for predicting the coronavirus surge because none are accurate in all facets, he says. But COVIDACTNOW.org has been reliable about the reproduction rate, the average number of people infected by one positive person.