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As Shelby County creaks open, expect a rise in COVID-19 cases. How much before we have to turn back?

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Local health officials and leaders expect the phased reopening of Shelby County’s economy to increase the number of people infected with COVID-19.

At present, health officials see the virus’ growth in Memphis and Shelby County as roughly flat, but they, like experts nationwide, estimate a significant number of people are asymptomatic carriers of the disease. They don’t know how many. For several weeks, Shelby County has been at an equilibrium with the virus — each new infection is resulting in about one more infection.

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