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Department of Prevention Medicine Biostatistics Seminar Series: Assessment of Individual- and Community-level Risk for COVID-19 Mortality in the US and Implications for Vaccine Distribution

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The Division of Biostatistics at the Department of Preventive Medicine, UTHSC, invites you to attend the following seminar.  

 

Time: Monday, December 11, 2:00 PM-3:00 PM CDT   

ZOOM Virtual Room Connection: Register in advance for this meeting     

Seminar Website: https://www.eventcreate.com/e/biostatisticsseminar    

Speaker Bio: https://dceg.cancer.gov/fellowship-training/fellowship-experience/meet-fellows/bb/agarwala-neha

Assessment of Individual- and Community-level Risk for COVID-19 Mortality in the US and Implications for Vaccine Distribution

Neha Agarwala, Ph.D.

Biostatistics Branch, National Cancer Institute, NIH

Equitable and effective risk-based allocations of scarce preventive resources, including early available vaccines will be essential to reduce COVID-19 illness and mortality for populations in the future. In this presentation, I will talk about our paper on developing a risk calculator for COVID-19 mortality based on various socio-demographic, pre-existing behavioral and health conditions for the US adult population. We combined information from the UK-based OpenSAFELY study, with the mortality rates by age and ethnicity available across US states. In addition, we calibrated the tool to produce absolute risks for individuals using community level pandemic dynamics. We used the risk model and publicly available data on prevalence and co-occurrences of the risk-factors to project risk for the general adult population across 477 US cities and for the 65 years and older Medicare population across 3,113 US counties, respectively. Projections show that the model can identify relatively small fractions of the population which will lead to a disproportionately large number of deaths and thus will be useful for effectively targeting individuals for early vaccinations.